2026-10-04 · paper-digest
Choi & DeKay: Even with truly random sequences, people judged a repeat about 7 points less likely after a run of four — Fukai Reads
A peer-reviewed paper by Yeonho Choi and Michael L. DeKay (The Ohio State University) in Judgment and Decision Making (29 September 2026). It re-analyzes a 2025 study that claimed the gambler's fallacy disappears in probability judgments when sequences are truly random. Re-aggregated by run length, the fallacy clearly appears: after four balls of the same color, judged chances of a repeat were 7.17 points lower on average. Only 29.0% of individuals, however, showed a credible fallacy on their own.
