2026-09-24 · paper-digest
Kemmerly et al.: Confident without being right, people bet more and searched more — Fukai Reads
A paper by Rowan Kemmerly and colleagues on unjustified confidence. In a preregistered study of 997 people betting on college football, confidence not backed by accuracy went with bigger bets and more buying of paid information — but was almost unrelated to how much people revised their guesses in light of information.
